IFM Research's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has tracked Vietnamese consumer sentiment continuously since 2012. This mid-year 2026 report, based on a national sample of 1,200 respondents collected in June 2026 (part of a rolling base of 21,898 respondents since 2018), finds confidence holding at 57 out of 110 — unchanged from January 2026 and still firmly in "very cautious" territory, as inflation fears, the Middle East crisis and softening savings keep spending guarded.

Methodology

The IFM Consumer Confidence Index uses a quantitative, self-completion methodology among end consumers nationwide, collected via the IFM Mobile Panel on smartphones. The June 2026 wave sampled 1,200 respondents, with a total tracking base of 21,898 respondents since 2018. Sample error is 3–4% based on wave size at a 95% confidence level.

The June 2026 sample skewed toward major cities (51% HCMC/Hanoi, 17% 2nd-tier cities, 31% rural), was evenly split by gender, and covered a broad age and income spread from below 10 million VND to above 30 million VND in monthly household income.

Executive Summary

Compared with January 2026, several consumer indicators softened: unemployment edged up to 10% (from 9%), salary increases fell to 49% (from 56%), and positive economic outlook for the year ahead dropped sharply to 43% (from 59%). The ability to save money also declined to 32% (from 35%), while overall consumption growth net of inflation held relatively firm at 3.87% versus 5.55% previously. The Consumer Confidence Index itself was flat at 57/110.

Loan activity is also shifting: 39% of consumers took out a loan in H1 2026 (up from 29% in January), but a growing share — 67% versus 54% — say it was for survival or paying off debt rather than investment. Online retail continues to be the only growth channel (+33%), while wet markets slipped into decline (-3%). On the business side, 62% report positive results, up from 39%, and spending due to inflation pressure rose to 58% of consumers, with 52% reporting increased spend overall.

Major fears & concerns: high inflation (64%), pollution (39%), and tax/interest/lending rates (37%) top the list — a shift from January 2026, when natural disasters (60%) and high inflation (59%) led.

2026 mid-year forecast: better than 2025. Business sentiment rose 10%, though half of businesses remain neutral-to-negative on results. Purchase intent for houses, land, domestic holidays and business investment shows potential growth, with disposable income concentrated in banks and gold. Consumer spend is forecast to grow 5.5% versus 3.5% in 2025, led by education, healthcare and F&B. At the same time, unemployment has risen slightly — especially among rural, younger and lower-income groups — loans for survival have jumped, and confidence remains stagnant at 57/110. The Middle East crisis and higher fuel prices have hit consumers, savings ability has dropped 3 points since 2025, and inflation fears are at their highest since COVID (64%). Bottom line: the Middle East, inflation and declining savings are keeping consumer confidence cautious, though education, healthcare, F&B and investment vehicles offer pockets of opportunity.

Employment Status & Ability to Save

Most Vietnamese consumers (77%) are in full-time employment, whether salaried or self-employed. Unemployment currently sits at 10%, up slightly from 9% in 2025, with 58% of the unemployed actively looking for work — concentrated among those under 30, in rural/Central Vietnam, and in lower income classes. Financial pressure has intensified: 49% of consumers report a decline in savings in 2026, versus 40% in 2025, while only 32% saw savings grow.

Top Fears 2021–2026

Inflation is now the clear number one consumer concern, rising sharply to 64% in June 2026 from 59% in January — well above all other worries. Pollution, economic slowdown and unemployment concerns have stayed broadly constant, while fears of natural disasters have eased significantly (down to 26% from 60%), helped by a relatively event-free first half of the year. Consumers are also increasingly worried about rising taxes, interest and lending rates (37%) and the risk of a global economic slowdown (36%).

Loans, Lending & Debt

Fewer consumers took out loans in the first half of 2026 (29%) compared with 2025 (39%), continuing a downward trend from a 2019 peak of 54%. However, loan purposes are shifting: immediate survival needs jumped to 46% (from 33% in 2025) and education-related borrowing rose to 18% (from 12%), while business borrowing softened to 28% (from 34%). Vietnamese banks remain the dominant loan source (50%), followed by consumer finance companies (28%); borrowing from friends and family has fallen sharply to 18% (from 32% in 2025), while foreign bank borrowing stayed stable at 3%.

2020–2026 Consumer Confidence Trend

Overall confidence remains "very cautious" at 57 points out of 110, essentially unchanged since the start of the year, as global uncertainty continues to fuel inflation concerns. The Index is calculated from 11 consumer spending categories, based on the net balance of "more – same – less" spending intentions, averaged across sectors.

Confidence varies by region and income: Central Vietnam leads at 60, followed by North (59) and Urban areas (58), while Rural (52) and South (53) lag behind. Higher-income groups (SEC ABC) show stronger confidence (58) than lower-income groups (SEC CDEF) at 54.

Spend Growth vs. Inflation, 2026

Increased consumption now accounts for only 42% of spending growth, with inflation driving the remaining 58% — a reversal from a year ago, when consumption drove 48% of growth versus 52% from inflation. Actual total growth net of inflation reached 5.5% in June 2026, up from 3.5% in June 2025, suggesting consumers are prioritizing essential and long-term household needs over discretionary spending. Household utilities, F&B, education and healthcare continue to deliver the strongest real growth after removing inflation.

On the business side, sentiment has strengthened, with 53% of companies expecting positive performance in 2026 (up from 41% in 2025), though underlying caution remains, particularly among larger enterprises.

Retail Channel Growth

Online shopping remains the only clear growth channel in 2026, up 29% year-on-year, though momentum has softened versus 2025's 33% growth. Mini markets are moving closer to stability, suggesting resilience among practical, everyday retail channels, while shopping malls and specialty stores continue to see the sharpest pullback (-33% and -27% respectively), reflecting weaker discretionary and occasion-led spending. Wet markets slipped into decline for the first time, down 1% after +1% growth in 2025.

Investment Vehicles 2026

Amid ongoing uncertainty, consumers are prioritizing safety: bank savings/term deposits remain the most widely held vehicle (59% present ownership, 41% intending to invest more), followed by gold (40% present, 45% intending to increase). Growth appetite is strongest, in relative terms, for fund investment (55% intending to increase) and stocks/bonds (52%), even though current ownership of these remains low — suggesting consumers are looking beyond traditional savings and gold toward higher-return options.

Big-Ticket Purchases: Land, Housing & Beyond

Purchase intent for houses and land shows a slight increase, likely tied to cooling property prices in H1 2026 — land intent is up to 10.6% (from 9% in 2025) and house intent up to 8.3% (from 7%), while apartment demand holds broadly steady at a lower, more cautious level (3.7%).

Beyond property, most big-ticket categories remain stable, with stronger growth seen in home renovations, new cars, domestic holidays and new business formation — suggesting a cautious return to larger spending. Investment in funds and stocks also shows a slight uptick, led by urban consumers looking beyond savings and gold for higher returns.

About this report: Based on the IFM Consumer Confidence Index, tracking Vietnamese consumers nationwide via the IFM Mobile Panel since 2012. This mid-year 2026 wave surveyed 1,200 respondents in June 2026, part of a cumulative base of 21,898 respondents since 2018. Sample error is 3–4% at a 95% confidence level.

About IFM Research: A market research and strategic consultancy group with over 3 decades of providing agile, accurate and actionable market insights, utilizing technical innovations for the digital age across South-East Asia.