Choosing Tết: Vietnam's New Equation

Mai is thirty, professional, and doing the math. Bangkok costs less than Tết. The flight, the hotel, the street food—all of it—comes in under what she'd spend on lucky money envelopes, gift hampers, bánh tét ingredients, and obligatory new clothes for relatives in Ho Chi Minh City. Plus, Bangkok doesn't require her to deep-clean an apartment or field questions about marriage prospects.

"Tết for me is nothing special," she says. "It's a long holiday. There is too much pressure to clean the house, make bánh tét and fulfill too many financial obligations. I prefer to travel overseas with friends and gain new experiences."

She's not alone in her arithmetic.

The Great Recalibration

For a decade, IFM Research has measured the changing temperature of Tết, tracking over 1,000 Vietnamese consumers annually as Vietnam's lunar new year transforms. The data reveals a fundamental shift—not in whether people celebrate, but in how much they're willing to spend.

In 2018, in the confidence of pre-pandemic prosperity, 65% of Vietnamese planned to spend more on Tết than the previous year. The average household committed 6.3 million VND to the celebration.

TET SPEND 2018 – 2026

By 2026: the Year of the Horse, that number has dropped to 3.4 million VND. A fall of 1.4 million from 2025 alone. Only 24% now plan to increase their Tết budget.

It's not a collapse. It's correction. Vietnamese consumers aren't abandoning Tết, they're redesigning it to fit their actual lives, not the idealized version from their grandparents' memories.

Two Vietnams, One Holiday

The Year of the Horse— Năm Ngọ symbolizes freedom, independence, speed, and endurance. A dynamic year favorable for adventure, business, and travel. The irony is almost too perfect: these values are precisely what's driving younger Vietnamese to rethink celebration itself.

There are two Vietnams experiencing this Tết. The first remembers when it was the singular event of the year, the only time for family reunion, the only excuse for extravagance, the cultural glue holding everything together.

The second Vietnam, Mai's Vietnam, lives in a world where Tết competes with a dozen other options. Weekend trips to Thailand. European Christmas markets. New Year's celebrations in Singapore. In this Vietnam, tradition isn't rejected; it's weighed, measured, and sometimes found too expensive.

What's happening isn't the death of culture. It's culture adapting to new economics, new freedoms, and new possibilities.

The Confidence Gap

Culture doesn't change in isolation—it needs economic permission.

IFM's Consumer Confidence Index tracks that permission. Pre-COVID confidence sat at 84. By early 2022, it had plummeted to 12. The latest reading: 57—recovering, but still reflecting caution over celebration.

Higher unemployment in 2025. Savings growth stagnant. Inflation persistent. When households are making careful choices everywhere else, Tết becomes subject to the same scrutiny as everything else in the budget.

The question isn't whether Tết survives economic headwinds—it will. The question is what form it takes when financial reality intrudes on tradition.

What Stays, What Goes

Tết isn't dying, it's shedding its expensive skin and keeping what matters. IFM's consumer data shows which elements survive the cut.

TET PURCHASE INTENT

Beer remains central—53% of consumers plan to buy it. Because what's a family gathering without something to share? Confectionery, snacks, tea, coffee, and biscuits all hold steady. They're affordable celebrations, small joys that don't require financial heroics.

What's declining? The prestige items. Whiskey, vodka, wine—once markers of respect and status—are falling away. So are carbonated soft drinks. The new preference: cheaper, healthier, simpler.

It's democratization. Tết is becoming more accessible, less performative, more about genuine connection than expensive signaling.

The Marketing Reckoning

For companies, the implications are existential. Before COVID, Tết could represent up to 60% of annual revenue for some businesses. That concentration made sense when Tết was the undisputed commercial peak of the year.

Today's Tết consumer is younger, more budget-conscious, less bound by tradition, and considerably more interested in experiences than obligations. The old playbook doesn't work because the game has changed.

Smart marketers aren't mourning the old Tết. They're figuring out what the new one demands.

Living the Year of the Horse

The zodiac got it right. The Year of the Horse does mean freedom, dynamism, and motion—Vietnamese consumers are simply exercising those values on their own terms. They're choosing which traditions serve them and discarding those that don't. They're adapting cultural practices to modern economic realities. They're moving forward, not backward.

This isn't Tết's end. It's Tết's evolution. The hamper is lighter, yes, but perhaps that's exactly what allows people to carry it into the future.

As IFM's decade of research makes clear: Give consumers what they want, not what they used to want. Mai might skip the bánh tét this year. But she'll celebrate Tết. Just on her own terms.

CHÚC MỪNG NĂM MỚI

Ralf Matthaes
Managing Director, IFM Research